Market Updates

Stay informed of recent market news as well as any changes that may be on the horizon with our weekly, monthly and quarterly market updates

Weekly Market Update Shows Man in Suit with Crossed Arms

Market Update

April 22, 2019

Presented by Kris Maksimovich:

General market news

  • Rates moved slightly upward last week, with the 10-year Treasury opening at 2.57 percent on Monday. The 30-year also moved higher, nearly hitting 3 percent midweek before settling back and opening at 2.97 percent on Monday.
  • S. indices were mixed last week as cyclical stocks outperformed, while defensive names faced selling pressure. The risk-on trade was largely driven by investors moving out of health care, real estate investment trusts, and utilities. The sell-off in health care was due to pressure from both sides of the political aisle: Bernie Sanders and the Democratic Party floated the “Medicare for All” proposal, while President Trump and his administration are said to be preparing their own overhaul of the health care system. Investors appeared to move away from the uncertainty surrounding health care and into technology, financials, and consumer discretionary stocks, which are being supported in earnings season and strengthening retail data. Health care providers—like Tenet Healthcare (THC), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and Cigna (CI)—were among the stocks that were hit particularly hard. We would keep an eye on these stocks, as it will be interesting to see if the rhetoric around health care continues into the 2020 campaign season or if it will take a back seat to other issues.
  • Last week was light on economic updates, in part due to the market holiday on Friday. The one major release that we saw was positive, however. Retail sales in March rebounded from a decline in February, rising by 1.6 percent against expectations for 1-percent growth. This was a very positive result, as retail sales were slow to start the year. The initial slow sales trend was in response to lowered consumer confidence at year-end, but confidence has since largely recovered. It is very encouraging to see sales following the same trend.
Equity Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 –0.07% 2.59% 16.59% 10.05%
Nasdaq Composite 0.17% 3.51% 20.90% 11.71%
DJIA 0.60% 2.53% 14.64% 10.22%
MSCI EAFE 0.35% 2.65% 13.07% –3.70%
MSCI Emerging Markets 0.34% 3.35% 13.63% –5.11%
Russell 2000 –1.20% 1.73% 16.57% 0.85%

Source: Bloomberg 

Fixed Income Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market –0.35% 2.58% 4.79%
U.S. Treasury –0.68% 1.42% 4.36%
U.S. Mortgages –0.30% 1.86% 4.57%
Municipal Bond –0.19% 2.70% 5.21%

Source: Morningstar Direct 

What to look forward to

This is a slow week from a data standpoint, but we will get a look at housing sales, durable goods orders, and what economic growth looked like at the start of the year.

On Monday, the existing home sales report is expected to show that sales slowed from an annualized rate of 5.51 million in February to 5.29 million in March. This result would suggest that lower mortgage rates may not have supported housing demand as much as expected. Similarly, on Tuesday, the new homes sales report is expected to drop from a 667,000 annualized run rate in February to 645,000 in March. If these numbers come in as expected, they would show that recent optimism around the housing sector may be overdone.

On Thursday, we will see the durable goods orders report. The headline index is expected to show a significant rebound, going from a 1.6-percent decline in February to a 0.5-percent gain in March. This jump would be based largely on a recovery in aircraft orders, despite Boeing’s problems with the 737 Max. The core index, which excludes transportation and is a better economic indicator, is also expected to show a rebound, from a decline of 0.1 percent to a gain of 0.3 percent. There may be some downside risk to these numbers as recent business confidence survey data has been weak. Even if the numbers come in as expected, slowing business investment growth is likely to be a drag on first-quarter growth.

Finally, on Friday, the initial estimate of first-quarter economic growth, in gross domestic product, is expected to show growth dropping from 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 1.8 percent for the first quarter of 2019. Most of the growth is likely to come from net trade, on faster export growth, slowing imports, and increased government spending, while consumption and business investment both slowed. First quarters have historically been weak and followed by stronger growth. So, if the number comes in as expected, it would be in line with recent history.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

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Kris Maksimovich is a financial advisor located at Global Wealth Advisors 18170 Dallas Parkway, Suite 103, Dallas, TX 75287. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at (972) 931-3818 or at info@gwadvisors.net.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®

 

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Monthly Market Update With Woman Holding Tablet

Market Update

April 15, 2019

Presented by Kris Maksimovich:

General market news

  • Rates moved higher late on Friday, with the 10-year Treasury jumping to 2.56 percent; it also opened there Monday morning. Meanwhile, the 2-year opened at 2.40 percent and the 30-year opened at 2.97 percent. The short end of the curve remains inverted, as the 3-year is yielding 2.36 percent and the 3-month is yielding 2.37 percent.
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up modestly ahead of the start of earnings season. The Dow Jones remained flat on the week, as industrial names like Boeing (BA) and General Electric (GE) lagged. Bank earnings kicked off this season with Friday’s release of J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC). J.P. Morgan was up 5.6 percent on the week as it continues to grow its balance sheet. But the same can’t be said about Wells Fargo, which was down 4.7 percent and continues to be clamped by regulators. In macro news, we saw stabilization in Chinese credit, supported by an increase in new bank loans.
  • Financials, communication services, and technology were the top-performing sectors on the week. Health care, energy, and utilities were among the biggest laggards.
  • On Wednesday, March’s Consumer Price Index showed 0.4-percent monthly growth, which contributed to inflation of 1.9 percent year-over-year. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index showed similar growth, with consumer inflation of 2.2 percent on a year-over-year basis.
  • On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey declined from 98.4 to 96.9. A modest drop to 98.2 was expected, so this is a disappointing result.
Equity Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 0.56% 2.66% 16.67% 11.34%
Nasdaq Composite 0.58% 3.33% 20.69% 13.04%
DJIA –0.03% 1.92% 13.96% 10.40%
MSCI EAFE 0.30% 2.31% 12.67% –2.66%
MSCI Emerging Markets 0.41% 3.00% 13.25% –4.82%
Russell 2000 0.16% 2.96% 17.98% 3.16%

Source: Bloomberg 

Fixed Income Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market –0.41% 2.52% 4.30%
U.S. Treasury –0.77% 1.32% 3.83%
U.S. Mortgages –0.27% 1.89% 4.34%
Municipal Bond –0.22% 2.67% 4.99%

Source: Morningstar Direct 

 

What to look forward to

This week is a busy one for economic data.

On Tuesday, we’ll see the industrial production report. It is expected to rebound from flat in February to a gain of 0.3 percent for March, largely on gains in utility production and possibly in oil production, as well as on higher prices. Manufacturing is also expected to improve, from a decline of 0.4 percent in February to a gain of 0.2 percent for March. Here, there is some downside risk on declines in hours worked in the sector. Although the expected rebound would be welcome, it would still leave both reports down over the past couple of months.

Also on Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders industry survey will be released. It is expected to rise from 62 in March to 64 for April, reflecting rising confidence in the homebuilding market. With interest rates declining, affordability has improved, which would make such an improvement reasonable.

On Wednesday, the international trade report is expected to show the trade deficit worsening slightly, going from $51.1 billion in January (which was a sharp drop over December) to $53.6 billion for February. Despite the small move, this result would still be better than recent figures. Further, it would help first-quarter growth, or at least act as less of a headwind than expected.

On Thursday, the retail sales report will be released. The headline index is expected to rise sharply, from a 0.2-percent decline for February to a 0.8-percent gain for March, on a rebound in auto sales and higher gasoline prices. The core index, which excludes autos, is also expected to bounce, from a 0.4-percent drop in February to a 0.7-percent gain in March. If the numbers come in as expected, it would take the short-term trend back into positive territory but would still be weak by recent standards. Even with the rebound, the data suggests we may well see slower growth in the first quarter.

Finally, on Friday, the housing starts report is expected to show improvement, with an increase from 1.16 million in February to 1.23 million for March on an annualized basis. Such an improvement would indicate the housing market is stabilizing after a slowdown, which again would be consistent with the rise in affordability and be a positive economic indicator.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

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Kris Maksimovich is a financial advisor located at Global Wealth Advisors 18170 Dallas Parkway, Suite 103, Dallas, TX 75287. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at (972) 931-3818 or at info@gwadvisors.net.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®

 

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Update on Market Condition Image Shows Man Holding Card That Says Market Update

Market Update

April 8, 2019

Presented by Kris Maksimovich:

General market news

  • Rates moved higher last week after hitting a recent cycle low the previous week. The 10-year Treasury was as low as 2.33 percent 11 days ago and sold off to rates as high as 2.54 percent late last week. It opened at 2.48 percent early Monday. Meanwhile, the 2-year opened at 2.33 percent, and the 30-year opened at 2.90 percent.
  • Global markets were up across the board last week. Global growth trade was back on as manufacturing surveys out of both the U.S. and China showed signs of improvement. Additionally, there appeared to be continued traction in trade talks between the two countries. Mortgage and auto data also showed signs of improvement following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) dovish move on rates last month.
  • Materials, financials, and consumer discretionary were the top three performers on the week. The sustained lower interest rate environment supported the materials and consumer discretionary sectors. Meanwhile, financials moved higher, supported by higher yields. Consumer staples, utilities, and health care were among the worst performers on the week, as investors favored the risk-on trade.
  • Last week was a relatively busy one for economic updates. On Monday, February’s retail sales disappointed, falling 0.2 percent against expectations for 0.2-percent growth. Also on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing survey was released. This measure of manufacturer sentiment rose by more than expected, from 54.2 to 55.3.
  • On Tuesday, February’s durable goods orders declined by 1.6 percent, which was slightly better than the 1.8-percent drop that was expected. The core figure, which strips out volatile transportation orders, grew by 0.1 percent.
  • Thursday saw the release of the ISM Nonmanufacturer survey. This index disappointed, falling from 59.7 to 56.1. This is a diffusion index, where values greater than 50 indicate expansion. So, this decline is not something to be overly concerned about for the time being.
  • Finally, on Friday, March’s employment report was released. Expectations were muted following a disappointing February. But March saw a strong rebound in job creation, with 196,000 new jobs added during the month. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.8 percent.

Equity Index

Week-to-Date

Month-to-Date

Year-to-Date

12-Month

S&P 500 2.09% 2.09% 16.02% 10.83%
Nasdaq Composite 2.73% 2.73% 20.00% 13.41%
DJIA 1.95% 1.95% 14.00% 10.36%
MSCI EAFE 2.01% 2.01% 12.34% –1.72%
MSCI Emerging Markets 2.58% 2.58% 12.79% –4.34%
Russell 2000 2.80% 2.80% 17.79% 3.97%

Source: Bloomberg 

 

Fixed Income Index

Month-to-Date

Year-to-Date

12-Month

U.S. Broad Market –0.30% 2.64% 4.53%
U.S. Treasury –0.46% 1.64% 4.23%
U.S. Mortgages –0.15% 2.01% 4.44%
Municipal Bond –0.30% 2.59% 5.17%

Source: Morningstar Direct 

What to look forward to

This week is a busy one for economic news. On Wednesday, the consumer prices report is due. The headline index, which includes energy and food, is expected to rise from a 0.2-percent increase in February to a 0.3-percent increase for March on a rebound in energy prices. This will take the annual rate from 1.5 percent to 1.8 percent, which is still well below the Fed’s inflation target. This increase will be entirely due to gasoline prices. The core index, which excludes energy and food and is a better economic indicator, is expected to be lower. It should edge up from 0.1 percent in February to 0.2 percent in March but remain steady at 2.1 percent on an annual basis. Overall, if the numbers come in as expected, they would show that inflation remains under control.

On Wednesday, the minutes from the Fed’s March meeting will be released, giving us some insight into the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged last month. Expectations are that the notes will show that Fed members are unlikely to raise rates this year but could include more color on how they plan to stop reducing the Fed balance sheet. These notes are unlikely to move markets. But in conjunction with the price data, they could serve to reinforce market expectations of a steady rate policy.

The producer price report, due on Thursday, is expected to show similar results to the consumer prices report. The headline number is expected to rise from 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent, on energy. In this case, the annual rate should stay at 1.9 percent, due to base effects. Similarly, the core index will rise slightly, from 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent. Here, the annual rate is expected to drop from 2.5 percent to 2.4 percent. These numbers would be consistent with the consumer price report and have the same meaning.

Finally, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, released on Friday, is expected to drop slightly from 98.4 in March to 98 in April. Although gas prices have risen, the stock market has done well and job growth has rebounded, which should leave confidence steady. If the number comes in as expected, this would be well above the historical average and serve as a counterweight to the weaker results from the Conference Board surveys.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

###

Kris Maksimovich is a financial advisor located at Global Wealth Advisors 18170 Dallas Parkway, Suite 103, Dallas, TX 75287. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at (972) 931-3818 or at info@gwadvisors.net.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®

 

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Update on Market Image With Business Woman With Crossed Arms

Market Update

April 1, 2019

Presented by Kris Maksimovich:

General market news

  • The 10-year Treasury was as low as 2.33 percent late last week. But it opened at 2.44 percent early Monday morning. Meanwhile, the 2-year opened at 2.29 percent, and the 30-year opened at 2.84 percent. Last week, rates continued to drop across the curve, but they bounced later in the week and opened higher than last Thursday’s lows. The curve is approaching inversion, with short rates essentially pinned at the federal funds level.
  • The three major U.S. markets were all up last week as they continued to process both the dovish tone from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and positive updates on U.S.-China trade relations. Following the Fed’s more dovish commentary and plans to end the balance sheet runoff in September, investors turned to a risk-on approach. The top three performing sectors were industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary. Those sectors that were among the worst performers were utilities, communication services, and energy.
  • S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin traveled to Beijing to meet with China’s Vice Premier Liu He. Mnuchin stated that the task was constructive, and Bloomberg reported that part of the focus of the meeting was to ensure that the deal text had no discrepancies.
  • Last week saw the release of a number of important economic data releases. On Tuesday, February’s housing starts came in much worse than expected, with a monthly drop of 8.7 percent against expectations for a decline of only 0.8 percent.
  • Tuesday’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index also disappointed, with a decline from 131.4 to 124.1. Consumer confidence was expected to show a modest increase, so this pullback is worth monitoring.
  • On Thursday, the third and final read of fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth was released. The economy grew at an annualized 2.2-percent rate. This result was down from the 3.4-percent rate in the third quarter.
  • Finally, on Friday, we saw the release of February’s personal income report and January’s personal spending report. Income rose by 0.2 percent, while spending grew by 0.1 percent. While this growth is modest in absolute terms, both measures had declined in the preceding months, so any growth is welcome.

Equity Index

Week-to-Date

Month-to-Date

Year-to-Date

12-Month

S&P 500 1.23% 1.94% 13.65% 9.50%
Nasdaq Composite 1.15% 2.70% 16.81% 10.63%
DJIA 1.67% 0.17% 11.81% 10.08%
MSCI EAFE –0.04% 0.72% 10.13% –3.05%
MSCI Emerging Markets –0.06% 0.83% 9.95% –6.93%
Russell 2000 2.32% –2.09% 14.58% 2.05%

Source: Bloomberg

 

Fixed Income Index

Month-to-Date

Year-to-Date

12-Month

U.S. Broad Market 1.92% 2.94% 4.48%
U.S. Treasury 1.91% 2.11% 4.22%
U.S. Mortgages 1.46% 2.17% 4.42%
Municipal Bond 1.58% 2.90% 5.38%

Source: Morningstar Direct 

What to look forward to

This week is a busy one for economic data and should provide further insight on whether the recent spate of weak data is likely to continue.

On Monday, the retail sales report is expected to show faster growth at the headline level. It should rise from a gain of 0.2 percent in January to a 0.3-percent gain for February, boosted by higher gas prices. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are expected to slow substantially, from a 0.9-percent gain to a 0.4-percent gain. Overall, while sales continue to grow, the growth rate has weakened after a significant pullback in December and will likely signal slower first-quarter growth.

Also on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing index is expected to rise slightly, from 54.2 in February to 54.3 for March. This figure would suggest that a slowdown in global demand has not yet significantly damaged the U.S. manufacturing sector. This is a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion and below 50 indicate contraction. So, this would be a reasonably healthy figure, suggesting continued growth.

On Tuesday, the durable goods orders report is also expected to disappoint at the headline level. It should drop from a gain of 0.3 percent in January to a decline of 1.2 percent for February, on a significant drop in aircraft orders. That said, this is an extremely volatile series that depends largely on aircraft. The core index, which excludes transportation and is a better economic indicator, is expected to rise from a decline of 0.2 percent in January to a gain of 0.3 percent for February. There may be some downside risk here on a weakness in business investment plans.

On Wednesday, the ISM Nonmanufacturing index is expected to pull back from 59.7 in February to 58 in March. This result would still leave it at a very healthy level on strong domestic demand for services. This is a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion and below 50 indicate contraction. As such, this would be a very healthy figure despite the recent pullback, suggesting continued growth.

Finally, on Friday, the employment report is expected to show that job growth recovered to 175,000 for March, up from a surprise decline to 20,000 in February. There may be some downside risk here, which could indicate job growth is finally slowing. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8 percent. Wage growth is expected to pull back from 0.4 percent to 0.2 percent, although that would still leave annual growth steady at 3.4 percent. If the numbers come in as expected, it will provide more assurance that despite recent weakness, the economic fundamentals remain sound.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

###

Kris Maksimovich is a financial advisor located at Global Wealth Advisors 18170 Dallas Parkway, Suite 103, Dallas, TX 75287. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at (972) 931-3818 or at info@gwadvisors.net.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®

 

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